Missing letter from the online news

Found this letter from Guy Dauncey in my travels... but not travelling through newspaper cyberspace, strangely enough. For some peculiar reason it made the print edition but not the online edition. Was that a minor oversight or intentional? Hhhhhmmmm.....

Times Colonist letters

Thursday May 6th, 2010

Sir, re: “We need power; Site C offers it”, May 2.

In your editorial you dismissed wind energy by saying that “because wind farms are entirely weather-dependent, they need five times the generating capacity of a hydro system to produce the same amount of power.”

A typical new wind farm has 35% generating capacity – it produces power 35% of the time. Site C dam’s generating capacity – if it’s built – will be 58%, so a wind farm needs 65% more capacity, not 500% more.

Site C will cost $6.6 billion for 900 MW of capacity, assuming no cost overruns. At current prices, wind farms in BC cost around $3 million per MW. For the same $6.6 billion investment, we could buy 2200 MW of wind power, and use the existing dams to firm it up.

Site C will produce 4,600 GWh a year of electricity. For the same investment, a wind farm could produce 6,700 GWh a year, without flooding any farmland. The area involved would be similar, but the actual land impacted would be 20 times less – around 220 hectares.

A wind farm could also be built more quickly, and produce power earlier than Site C. By these reckonings, Site C makes neither economic nor environmental sense.

Guy Dauncey

President, BC Sustainable Energy Association

The man knows dams

I've been told that former Revelstoke Mayor and Member of Parliament, Sid Parker is speaking at Northern Lights College in Fort Saint John, May 12th at 7:00 PM.

No matter what your personal position on Site C might be this is somebody you should pay attention to.

He lived the hydro dam experience in his community and will tell you all about it.

I have my own opinions and say what I think.

Sid Parker... has been there and done that. HE KNOWS what he is talking about.

Fairy Tales By The Brothers Grimm

When I was a little kid there was a popular book titled "Fairy Tales By The Brothers Grimm."
Little did I know that six decades later I would be listening to "Fairy Tales By The Grim Brothers."

I dialed up a radio interview that a radio station did with Dave Conway. He is the talking tape loop BC Hydro plays when they want to sell a story.

He babbled on about how many studies and consultations "the company" had done in getting public feedback. He never bothered to mention a single case of actual feedback from any of those consolations.

He was also careful to refer to BC Hydro as "the company" making sure he created the impression that somehow there was a separation between BC Hydro and "Go for it Gordie's" office.

Good try Dave...........but nobody in this province is going to take that one at face value.

Dazzling dialogue Dave did what he was told to do and that was to follow the script (Lekstrom didn't get that message yet). The brain trust said "Dave get out there and baffle 'em with BS".

That's how it works when you start with a bias and then set out to prove it. You stuff the file with subtle hints of astounding amounts of due diligence and you avoid the bad news by making it sound like good news.

Dave never once mentioned costs nor did he even suggest viability was a consideration. Oddly enough Dave never bothered saying "the company owes the people of BC $7.3 billion, we lose money pretty much every year and we would like to accelerate that process".

I can't wait for the Dr Suess version of Site C. I can see it now. A guy with dark rim glasses blue and white knitted mittens, clapping and singing "I am I am the Man with the dam."

Actually it makes sense they should frame this in fairy tales aimed at 6 year olds.

They may be able to sneak it by them and in the end it will be them that have to pay for it.

PS.....will somebody please tell Lekstrom that California is still broke

BC Book Prizes

And this year's winner for best work of fiction is .............. Prisoner 03-02658!!!!!!!!!

This is the honorary name given to Gordon Campbell by a Hawaiian Chief.

Of course that is the Chief Of Police.

The panel has decided 03-02658's claim that 35,000 jobs could be created simply by construction of a large hydro dam with small electrical output, was considered fictional genius. This combined with his earlier claim that the 2010 Olympics would create 215,000 jobs made him the clear winner.

After spending a considerable amount of time measuring facts against fiction, the panel has awarded him a secondary accolade for having the theatrical ability to make these claims sound believable even in the face of continuous rising unemployment.

Runner up for this years award was Energy Minister "Larry The Cable Guy" Lekstrom for his fictional piece entitled "How I Will Sell Hydro To California Even Though Their Legislation Prevents It"

Last year's runner up Colin Hansen finished a strong third with this year's work " The HST Is Not A Lie, It Is A Work Of Fiction".

What's in a Number... and What Isn't?

Hhhhhmmmm… $6.6 billion dollars they say?

First, it is good to recognize that the expected cost overruns on large hydro projects are of the order of 56%, likely taking the cost over $10 billion.

The average cost overrun of the 81 large dam projects included in the WCD Cross-Check Survey was 56%.

Dams And Development : A New Framework For Decision-Making

The Report Of The World Commission On Dams, November 2000

http://www.unep.org/dams/WCD/report/WCD_DAMS%20report.pdf

So let’s say it will likely cost $10 billion, as is, including the expected cost overruns.

However, there are still many substantial costs that have not been included in BC Hydro’s very rough estimate. This figure does not include the necessary upgrading of the design to meet current seismic guidelines which would be extensive considering the instability in the banks of the Peace River at the location of Site C. It also does not include updating the design to fit current environmental and safety guidelines. An example of the latter would be clearing the vegetation to reduce the expected GHG emissions, to reduce the problem of methylmercury bioaccumulation in the fish and to allow for some vague concept of recreation.

"If the project advances to Stage 3, the interim cost estimate would be updated to reflect current market conditions such as commodity prices, and labour prices. In addition, the historical project design is almost 30 years old and would also be updated to reflect current environmental, seismic and safety guidelines, as well as input from public consultation. Due to the increases in modern design and seismic standards, BC Hydro believes these design changes would increase the total project cost."

(Stage 2 Report: Consultation and Technical Review, Fall 2009, page 75
http://www.bchydro.com/etc/medialib/internet/documents/planning_regulatory/site_c/2010Q2/stage_2_report_-_consultation.Par.0001.File.Stage_2_Report_Consultation_and_Technical_Review.pdf)

There would also be the cost associated with dealing with the regional landfill which is situated on the safeline. This is a serious concern given that there is significant instability in the banks of the Peace River in that area and the potential sloughing could be very detrimental both to aquatic life and people downstream. It is important to note that the Peace River is the soul source of drinking water for the town of Taylor. Twenty five years ago there wasn't much thought given to what people put in the dump and all of that would have leached deep into the soil over the many years. There will also be many issues to deal with such as very high levels of water turbidity which will last at least for the duration of construction. Massive filtration systems will need to be set up, at BC Hydro’s expense, to mitigate for this turbidity.

In addition, there is the cost of upgrading the transmission lines to the South, which is a necessity if Site C were to proceed. This cost has also not been included in BC Hydro’s rough estimate. BC Hydro has justified not including this cost by saying it would be a cost associated with BCTC as opposed to BC Hydro... that justification can be thrown out the window now that BCTC and BC Hydro are due to be amalgamated again. It’s an interesting game the government and BC Hydro play.

This BC Hydro Stage 2 Report also states

"While it is possible for BC Hydro to produce a cost estimate based on the 1980s design, it is not prudent to do, since potential design changes resulting from optimization would impact the capital cost estimate. Providing for these potential design changes at this point may produce a cost range that is so variable it would not be meaningful to decision makers.”

which can be read as saying the current cost estimate is beyond meaningless and they have no idea at this point how much it will really cost. However, the timing has proven to be quite convenient, allowing the government to make the decision to proceed with the project based on the admittedly rough, low-ball estimates. More meaningful and significantly higher cost estimates will not be revealed until BC Hydro is already well within Stage 3 of the five stage process. Most convenient indeed.

And to think... this is not even including the interest that would be incurred on such a massive loan.

BC Legislature News

The public backlash rising from the announcement of the Site C Dam in Northeastern British Columbia has reached the BC Legislature.

Insiders say Premier Gordon Campbell became short with caucus members that questioned the political wisdom in building another dam.

He responded to questions by saying "if dam building is good enough for our national rodent it's good enough for me".

Government Guestimates

The Electric Dictator says the 900 MW Site C dam will generate enough electricity to light 410,000 homes. That works out to about 455 homes per megawatt.

In the article below it says that the Peace Canyon Dam, on the same river and only 83km upstream from Site C, will light around 300,000 homes. Peace Canyon is a 700 megawatt facility. That works out to about 430 homes per megawatt. Peace Canyon has just undergone a major reno and is using the most modern and efficient equipment so this isn't a matter of old versus new.

It's not even a really big difference. However, it's just a clear example of politicians stretching the numbers to benefit their arguments.

Using Campbell's numbers, Peace Canyon should be generating enough power to light an additional 18,500 homes.

The article also mentions that the new upgrades will allow the facility to provide power to the province for another 20 to 30 years. It was built in 1980. 30 more years would take it's service life out to 60 years. This happens to be the same number used to desribe the expected life span of a hydro dam in documents produced by the Columbia Power Corporation (owned by the BC Government).

Peace Canyon is a concrete structure as are the CPC plants.

Campbell went for the gusto on this one. He says Site C, which is a mud wall with a concrete door, will last 100 years. He is a full 40 years beyond the past estimates of his own experts.

Peace Canyon Dam reno complete

Friday, September 25, 2009

A major upgrade of the Peace Canyon Dam is now complete.
The $120 million refurbishment began in May of 2006, with the goal of allowing the facility to provide power to the province for another 20-30 years. The project included replacing the stators, upgrading the rotors, and overhauling the turbines of the plant’s four units. BC Hydro CEO Bob Elton says the overhaul was completed on time, and around $6 million under budget.
The 29 year-old dam provides enough hydro-electricity to power around 300,000 homes.

The Source of Site C Pressure

Former Alberta Premier, Ralph Klein did a lot of work with First Nations communities.

In recognition, the Chief of the Siksika (Blackfoot) First Nation gave him the honorary name
Otskoipiiksi which means "Bluebird".

Current BC Premier, Gordon Campbell was also given an honorary name by a Chief.

It happened to be a Chief of Police in Hawaii

He gave him the name Prisoner 03-02568

In Hawaiian that means "Not Smart Enough to Walk"

Green Energy Program?!?!?

A quick look at some of the Site C pre-construction reveals some interesting "green" ideas.

They claim they will recover one million cubic meters of marketable wood products. That's a pretty good trick in today's world.
A million cubic meters of additional wood in the Ft St John regional market is going to clearly cut logging activity in other places.
You can bet they won't be getting premium prices for it either. This really would be a fire sale. They either have to sell it or burn it.

Better yet in the "green energy program" is the other stuff they have to get rid of.

They are apparently going to have a go at creating the worlds largest compost pile. The legacy left by Campbell and 'Larry The Cable Guy' Lekstrom could then include a great big mud dam and a footnote in the Guinness Book Of Records.

They note they will be removing 500,000 metric tons of WASTE VEGETATION. They are going to have to put it somewhere.

Just exactly what is waste vegetation? Is that the stuff that doesn't filter CO2?

No matter says Larry...........lets git er done ......... now I don't care who yar...... thats green thinkin right thar.

Global Markets Plunge Over Debt Fears

Did you watch the news today? Did the headline "Global Markets Plunge Over Debt Fears" catch your eye?

These are exceptionally volatile times in the world's economy. Entire countries are being overwhelmed by an inability to repay debt. Monstrous fraud schemes seem to surface almost weekly, corporate collapses are not even considered unusual and governments seem to think the way to solve this is to borrow more money.

They have one small problem, OK one large problem. There just isn't enough money to go around. That means it is a lenders market,its that old golden rule thing, the guy with the gold makes the rules. A natural occurrence in a lenders market is the cost of money going up. Thanks to globalization that means interest rates world wide are going to go up. You can bet they are going more than a little bit.

It is against this backdrop the BC Government has made the decision to go ahead with an unneeded project with a 6.6 billion dollar price tag and a yet to be decided interest rate.

There has not been a single sentence in the media that asks the question "at what price does Site C become no longer viable"?

Price doesn't seem to matter, their conventional wisdom appears to be based in the Field Of Dreams theory of economics, Build It and They Will Come.

Lekstrom's California export market seems a little shaky given that state actually has legislation underway that would prevent buying power from producers that use hydro facilities' capable of more than 30 megawatts. They consider large hydro facilities too damaging to the environment. Site C is outside that standard by a multiple of 30 times.

Campbell claims his goal is self sufficiency and he is just trying to overcome a power importing problem.

One of these guys didn't read the script.

Even at todays still relatively low interest rates the cost of borrowing construction money and spreading it over 30 or 40 years
will easily double the cost of the project. With the extreme instability in the lending markets it is not much of a stretch to say they could be tripled. Shouldn't there at least be an indication where they say oooops this is going to cost to much?

They don't seem to care . 4.4 million people are going to wind up paying for the ticket on one guy's $12 billion ego trip.

This Field Of Dreams has all the makings of becoming a Swamp of Nightmares